This assignment focuses on Economic/Statistics Unemployment Forecast. There is also a description of rates for June (Boston) and July. So, which criteria you used to choose the forecast (e.g. RMSE, MAD, etc.)? How did different models perform on this criteria

Economic/Statistics Unemployment Forecast : rates for June (Boston) and July

  Economic/Statistics Unemployment Forecast
Academic Level : Bachelor
Paper details

Develop a forecast for both unemployment rates for June (Boston) and July (United States) 2020. You must test at least three different forecasting methods (no more than two iterations of a same method (e.g. you can do 3 month and 6 month Moving Average, but you must test at least one other method). Pick the one you think is the best, and explain why you picked it. Provide the forecast unemployment rate for July for U.S. and June for Boston. Does the forecast “make sense” to you?

At the very least you should answer the following questions:

Economic/Statistics Unemployment Forecast : rates for June (Boston) and July

1. Which criteria you used to choose the forecast (e.g. RMSE, MAD, etc.)? How did different models perform on this criteria (i.e. report actual numbers)? What was the forecast of each model?

2. What is your final forecast based on the model(s)?

3. Do you think it is an under-estimate, over-estimate or fairly reasonable? If you think the rate would be something other than what your method produces, what is your predicted unemployment rate for each? Explain your choice.

What is your final forecast (using the model(s) and/or your subjective judgment) to two decimal points (e.g. 3.11)?

Please submit your write-up in Word or PDF and also submit the output of your modelling efforts either the Excel file, or the script (e.g. a do-file or R-script) that can recreate your answers.

Detailed Instructions

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