THE BRIEF You are required to undertake a Scenario Planning exercise to assess both economic growth and international trade (i.e. balance of payments) may impact the ranking of a specific economy.
There are a number of different methodologies that can be applied to carry out a scenario planning framework.
For this assignment, you must follow the methodology outlined in the Garvin and Levesque (2005) ‘A note on scenario planning’ as published in the Harvard Business Review.
You are required to complete the following tasks: Task 1: Your Key Focal Issue is:
“Will the [selected country] be able to maintain its position as [xth] largest economy in the world by 2050?” Your 2 x critical uncertainties are 1) Level/rate of economic growth and 2) You select your own additional critical uncertainty. (20 marks) Task 2: Develop a 4 x future Scenario Framework based upon your Key Focal Issue and 2 x critical uncertainties (as discussed in Task 1).
For each future scenario, you must provide supporting narratives and early warning signals. You may find it useful to include relevant indices and/or other economic indicators to help describe each of the future scenarios.
Explore the strategic implications for each of the alternative futures and recommend appropriate policy options to help mitigate/support the potential future scenarios. You must apply theoretical models discussed in lectures and seminars on this unit
