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1. commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three penluels. shown a< follows:

a Predict orders for the following day for each of the products using an appropriate naive method. Hint: Pia each data set.

What should the use of sales data instead of demand imply?

2. National Scan. Inc.. sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a sewn-month period were as follows:

Month Sales (000 units)

FPO                            19

Mat                             18

APT                          15

May                            20

Jun                             18

Jul                  22

Aug.                           20

a. PICA the monthly data on a short of graph paper.

b. Forecast September sales volume using each of the follow ing:

(11 The naive approach

(21 A foe-month moving average

1. A weighted average using 60 for August. 1(t lot July. and 10 for June
2. Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 20. assuming a a March forecast of 1010000

(51 A linear trend equation

c. Which method seems least appropriate? Why? (Hint Refer to your plot mini pan a.)

d. What does use of the term sales rather than demand presume?

3. A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to forecast equipment usage at its main plant August usage was forecasted to he Aft percent of capacity: actual usage was 89.6 percent of capacity.

A smoothing constant of .1 is used

1. Prepare forecast for September
2. Assuming actual September usage of 92 percent. prepare a forecast for October usage. 4. An electrical contractor’s records during the last Inc weeks indicate the number of job                                                                       liemts:

Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods:

1. Naiw
2. A four-period moving average
3. Exponential smoothing with a = 30: Inc 20 for week 2 forecast

5. A cosmetics manufacturer’s marketing department has developed a linear trend used to prcdicl annual sales of its popular Hand & Foot Cream.

F, KO + 15:

where

F, = Annual sales (000 bottles)

is in years

1. Are annual sales increasing or &Creasing? By how much?
2. Predict annual sales for year 6 using the equation.